Japan’s recent form suggests they could emerge as one of the most dangerous dark horses at the 2026 World Cup. The Blue Samurai are in strong form, having won their last three matches of 2025. However, their capabilities have been on display for a much longer period – over the last four years, Japan have been laying the foundations to mount their deepest World Cup run this summer.
The previous edition of the tournament illustrated a potential for surprises. Germany and Spain were both defeated 2–1 by Japan, who topped Group E. A narrow defeat via penalty shootout against eventual third-place finishers Croatia followed. While Japan also reached the last 16 in 2018, the level of opposition they faced in 2022 emphasised their improvement since appointing Hajime Moriyasu after the World Cup in Russia.
That trajectory has continued. Since the 2022 World Cup, Japan’s list of impressive results has expanded to include a 4–1 win in Germany and a 3–2 win over Brazil. Traditional World Cup stalwarts Turkey, Tunisia, Peru, and Ghana have all been defeated by Moriyasu’s side over that period. With Japan’s group containing the Netherlands, Tunisia, and one of Poland, Sweden, Ukraine, or Albania, there will be a genuine belief that each fixture is winnable. Victory over nations of that level has become familiar.
Those results have often been fuelled by offensive firepower. Since the World Cup in Qatar, Japan have scored four or more goals in 17 matches. However, that has not been accomplished through the play of traditional contenders such as Spain. Many of their goals originate from high turnovers or rapid counter-attacks rather than sustained possession. Moriyasu’s plan has been built around the profile of his squad.
Strikers Kyogo Furuhashi and Daizen Maeda are known as much for their work rate as their goal-scoring. While pressing is central to the plan, Japan are also able to balance that intensity with a clear defensive shape. Moriyasu trusts his side in a low-block where they can absorb pressure before countering. Experienced players such as Maya Yoshida and Takehiro Tomiyasu’s defensive qualities are highlighted in such situations.
So often, underdogs find success at major tournaments through similar approaches. Without obvious world-class attackers, Moriyasu’s system appears ideal for the World Cup, where pragmatism and reactivity are frequently rewarded. Inspiration may come from Asia’s best-ever World Cup participant. In 2002, South Korea reached the semi-finals, combining aggressive high-pressing with defensive discipline. Guus Hiddink provided a blueprint, and Japan could find substantial success by continuing to follow it.
Japan’s squad will likely feature players based exclusively in Europe, highlighting a major shift over time. At France ‘98, Japan’s squad all played in the J-League. In 2002, four played in Europe. Even as recently as 2014 and 2018, that figure rose to 12 and 16, respectively. With the J-League yet to catch up in terms of quality, playing in Europe means a familiarity with facing high-level opposition – something that will be necessary if Japan are to build on 2022’s last 16 finish.
Results suggest that the Blue Samurai’s trajectory is trending upwards. Having never progressed past the last 16, an improvement would represent a historic achievement. With a squad balancing the youthful exuberance of Takefusa Kubo with the nous of Wataru Endo, and high pressing with a solid structure, Moriyasu may have discovered a formula for Japan to become genuine dark horses this summer.