We are currently six gameweeks into the 26/27 season, and a lot has happened already. Some things are proving more predictable than others. For instance, Erling Haaland remains the top goal scorer so far with a total of six goals for City, though not by landslide numbers – so far, anyway.
Chelsea’s João Pedro is trailing closely behind with five goals, and a recent near-miss at a hat trick in the game against Bournemouth in early October. Still, so early in the season, we can’t critique Haaland too strongly for not jetting off into the distance with a hat trick every game.
Other Premier League happenings are arguably less predictable. While many of us saw the reckoning of Man City’s legal allegations coming, who could have predicted the real-world impact that has ensued? So early in the season, and with so many questions hanging over who, exactly, is in with a shot at the title race alongside Arsenal – after all, Liverpool’s mass exodus over the summer and a shaky debut for Iraola, combined with the departure of Guardiola from Man City, mean some Gooners are already preparing for another parade – the fallout feels near apocalyptic.
Another unpredictable – or, more accurately, unpredicted – situation we find ourselves in? Forwards aren’t…well…they’re not doing what they’re primarily there to do.
What do we mean by this?
Over in the world of FPL, only two of the top 20 scoring players of the 26/27 season so far are forwards. Brighton’s De Cuyper sits at the top of the table currently with 53 points thanks to a string of clean sheets against Arsenal, Coventry, Aston Villa and Sunderland, along with two goals and two assists. He’s followed by midfielder Groß and defender Tarkowski before, finally, we reach the season’s current top two goalscorers: Pedro and Haaland, both on a total 45 points accumulated across six games. It’s the kind of thing that gets the football betting data in a scramble.
After that, it’s midfielders and defenders all the way down to position 22 on the table, where Isak represents the only other forward to be in the top 30 point scorers.
It feels odd to look at the data from that perspective, given the fact that, while games are consistently falling behind their xG this season, the average non-penalty goals per game is so far higher than it was in the 25/26 season. Still, more than half of the teams are scoring fewer goals than expected.
The answer, or at least part of it, lies somewhere in the structural rewiring of how Premier League sides are set up to attack. De Cuyper topping the FPL charts is the clearest signal yet that the attacking fullback has gone from a novelty to a near-universal tactical assumption. Clean sheet points, attacking returns, and the bonus point system stacking behind a player who effectively operates as a winger for long stretches of a game? The scoring model hasn’t caught up with the football.
Then there’s the more uncomfortable possibility: that forwards are the ones absorbing the statistical punishment when teams underperform their xG. Chances are being created – we know this; the numbers are clear on that front – but when a team converts at a rate below expectation, the blame lands, almost by default, on the striker who failed to finish. The midfielder who played the through ball keeps his underlying data intact. The forward doesn’t.
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